(Vinay Shukla)Date: Sun, 8 Jun 1997 15:00:36 +-400
Only for personal use
YELTSIN-DUMA SHOWDOWN IMMINENT?
FROM VINAY SHUKLA
Moscow correspondent
Press Trust of India (PTI)
MOSCOW, JUNE 8 (PTI)- SINCE 1991 AUGUST HARD-LINE COUP AGAINST EX-SOVIET PRESIDENT GORBACHEV, WITH THE ADVENT OF SUMMER WHEN MOST OF THE RUSSIANS INCLUDING THE POLITICAL ELITE PREPARE FOR THEIR VACATIONS, THE RUMOURS OF "AN IMMINENT PUTSCH" , "SERIES OF HIGH-LEVEL RESIGNATIONS" HAVE BECOME A "MUST".
THE IMMINENT RESIGNATION OF PRIME MINISTER CHERNOMYRDIN AND DISSOLUTION OF DUMA(LOWER HOUSE) ARE THE "CALL-SIGN" OF THE SUMMER-1997.
ALBEIT, THE REPORTS ABOUT MR CHERNOMYRDIN SUBMITTING HIS RESIGNATION LETTER TO THE PRESIDENT BEFORE LEAVING FOR HOLIDAY HAVE BEEN CATEGORICALLY DENIED AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL INCLUDING THE PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESMAN.
BUT THE KREMLIN IS MAINTAINING SILENCE ON REPORTS ABOUT MR YELTSIN'S PLANS TO DISSOLVE THE COMMUNIST DOMINATED DUMA.
ACCORDING TO A RECENT REPORT PUBLISHED BY WELL-INFORMED "NEZAVISIMOYA GAZETA" DAILY, THE KREMLIN ANALYSTS ARE BUSY IN DECIDING WHAT ACTION PRESIDENT COULD TAKE WITHIN THE CONSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK .
THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION(CPRF) LED BY GENNADY ZYUGANOV HAS ALREADY UNVEILED ITS PLANS TO LAUNCH A NATION-WIDE STIR TO TAKE THE POLITICAL BATTLE TO THE STREETS IN CASE OF DUMA DISSOLUTION AND DIRECT AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT THE WRATH OF MILLIONS OF RUSSIANS AWAITING THEIR WAGES AND PENSIONS FOR MONTHS AT A STRETCH.
UNDER THE RUSSIAN CONSTITUTION THE PRESIDENT HAS THE RIGHT TO DISSOLVE THE LOWER HOUSE IN CASE DUMA REFUSES TO APPROVE THE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE FOR THE PREMIERSHIP OR PASSES NO-TRUST VOTE IN THE GOVERNMENT TWICE WITHIN A THREE MONTH PERIOD.
IN BOTH THE CASES THE PRESIDENT HAS THE OPTION OF ACCEPTING DUMA'S VERDICT AND NOMINATE ANOTHER PRIME MINISTER AND AVERT A POLITICAL SHOWDOWN.
HOWEVER, MR YELTSIN, WHO NEVER HAD A SOFT CORNER FOR THE PARLIAMENT AND OVERSTEPPED THE CONSTITUTION IN OCTOBER 1993 IN DRIVING IT OUT OF POWER WITH THE HELP OF TANK BOMBARDMENT OF THE PARLIAMENT BUILDING, WOULD BE LEAST INTERESTED IN COMPROMISING OVER HIS NOMINEE FOR THE POST OF THE PRIME MINISTER.
WHAT IS 'GOOD' FOR DUMA IS ALWAYS 'BAD' FOR THE KREMLIN , THE POLITICAL PRACTICE IN POST-SOVIET RUSSIA SHOWS.
REJUVENATED YELTSIN, PERHAPS CANNOT FORGET THAT PRIME MINISTER CHERNOMYRDIN WAS APPROVED IN AUGUST 1996, ONLY THANKS TO THE SOLID BACKING OF THE COMMUNISTS, WHO SEE HIM AS A "LESSER EVIL" CAPABLE OF TAKING THE REINS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL POWER IN CASE OF EVENTUALITY.
MR YELTSIN CAN NOT FORGIVE THE COMMUNIST DOMINATED HOUSE FOR PERSONAL ATTACKS ON HIM AND DEMANDS OF THE TRANSFER OF POWERS TO MR CHERNOMYRDIN, WHEN HE WAS AWAITING HEART BYPASS SURGERY LAST YEAR.
THE MAJOR CABINET RESHUFFLE IN MARCH, WHICH INSTALLED THE PRESIDENTIAL PROXY - ANATOLY CHUBAIS ALONG WITH HIS RADICAL YOUNG REFORMIST TEAM, VIRTUALLY TRANSFORMING MR CHERNOMYRDIN INTO A 'FIGUREHEAD' PRIME MINISTER, SHOULD BE SEEN AS RECOVERING MR YELTSIN'S FIRST ENERGETIC MOVE ON THE RUSSIAN POLITICAL CHESSBOARD.
THIS EVENTUALLY COULD LEAD TO THE CHECKMATE OF THE DUMA, DOMINATED AND CONTROLLED BY HIS POLITICAL FOES.
UP TO NOW THERE HAVE BEEN TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF THE BIG POWER GAME:
* YELTSIN PROVOKES THE DUMA TO PASS NO-CONFIDENCE MOTION AGAINST THE CHERNOMYRDIN CABINET TWICE IN SUCCESSION, SPECIALLY OVER THE ISSUE OF 108 TRILLION ROUBLE BUDGET CUTS PROPOSED BY THE GOVERNMENT AND DISSOLVE IT.
* YELTSIN SACKS CHERNOMYRDIN AND APPOINTS CHUBAIS -- ALLERGIC TO THE COMMUNISTS AND NATIONALISTS- AS THE NEW PRIME MINISTER, DUMA VOTES AGAINST HIS NOMINATION AND IS DISSOLVED.
BUT MR YELTSIN IS KNOWN FOR ADOPTING 'INNOVATIVE' APPROACH IN ACHIEVING HIS GOALS, HIS POLITICAL RIVALS SAY.
IN 1991 TO GET RID OF GORBACHEV HE DISSOLVED THE USSR, IN 1993 TO GET RID OF THE DEFIANT SUPREME SOVIET (PARLIAMENT) HE BOMBARDED THE PARLIAMENT HOUSE.
"THIS TIME TO DISSOLVE THE STATE DUMA HE WILL THINK SOMETHING NEW," CPRF CHIEF GENNADY ZYUGANOV BELIEVES.
MR YELTSIN, WHO INITIALLY WAS ENCOURAGED BY HIS FRIEND -- FRENCH PRESIDENT JACQUES CHIRAC'S MOVE- WOULD HARDLY DARE TO DISSOLVE THE HOUSE, SINCE THE NEW PARLIAMENT WILL BE "REDDER", DUMA SPEAKER GENNADY SELEZNYOV WARNED.
BUT THE THIRD SCENARIO BEING WRITTEN IN THE KREMLIN LATELY INDICATES THAT CLOUDS ARE GATHERING ON THE POLITICAL HORIZON, WHICH MAY BURST AND WASHOUT NOT ONLY DUMA, BUT LEAD TO THE REVAMPING OF THE ELECTION SYSTEM IN RUSSIA.
THE KREMLIN SEES THE SYSTEM OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION OF THE POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE LOWER HOUSE IS THE MAIN 'CULPRIT' RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DOMINANCE OF THE COMMUNISTS AND OTHER OPPOSITION FORCES IN DUMA.
ACCORDING TO THE ELECTION LAW 225 (50 PERCENT) SEATS IN THE HOUSE ARE ALLOCATED TO POLITICAL PARTIES CROSSING THE 5 PERCENT BARRIER AT THE POLLS ON PROPORTIONAL BASIS AND THE PARTIES POLLING EVEN 4.99 PERCENT VOTES REMAIN OUTSIDERS.
THE OUTSIDER PARTIES HAD TRIED TO CHALLENGE THIS SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE DECEMBER 1995 DUMA POLLS FOLLOWING THE LANDSLIDE VICTORY OF THE COMMUNIST OPPOSITION.
THEIR ARGUMENT IS THAT THIS IS A VIOLATION OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL GUARANTEES OF THE VOTERS TO ELECT THEIR REPRESENTATIVES IN THE PARLIAMENT.
ON JUNE 6 AT A ROUNDTABLE CONFERENCE LEADERS OF THE OUTSIDER MINI-PARTIES AND GROUPS CLAIMED THAT AT THE LAST ELECTIONS PARLIAMENTARY PARTIES HAVE POLLED ONLY 50.5 PERCENT VOTES, WHILE 49.5 PERCENT VOTERS, ABHORRING THE IDEOLOGY OF THE COMMUNISTS AND ZHIRINOVSKY'S ULTRA-NATIONALISTS, DO NOT HAVE THEIR REPRESENTATION IN THE TOP LEGISLATIVE BODY OF THE COUNTRY.
LEADING BUSINESS PAPER 'KOMMERSANT DAILY' PUBLISHED A TABLE INDICATING THAT FOUR LEADING FACTIONS - THE COMMUNISTS, LDPR OF MR ZHIRINOVSKY, 'OUR HOME IS RUSSIA' OF MR CHERNOMYRDIN AND 'YABLOKO' BLOC OF DR YAVLINSKY DOUBLED THEIR STRENGTH IN THE HOUSE AT THE COST OF VOTES CAST FOR THE OUTSIDER PARTIES AND POLITICAL GROUPS.
IF THERE WAS NO 5 PERCENT BARRIER THE COMMUNISTS WOULD HAVE GOT 50 SEATS INSTEAD OF PRESENT 99 ALLOCATED ON PROPORTIONAL BASIS. MR ZHIRINOVSKY'S FACTION WOULD HAVE GOT 25 SEATS INSTEAD OF 50.
THE ARGUMENT OF THE MINI-PARTIES HAS A SUBSTANTIAL WEIGHT, BUT FOR SUCH 'UNDEMOCRATIC NORM' NO ONE IS TO BE BLAMED BUT YELTSIN.
IT WAS HE WHO HAD PERSONALLY SET THE RULES OF THE GAME IN 1993 AFTER FIRING THE DEFIANT SUPREME SOVIET.
IN 1995, WHEN FIRST VOICES OF DISCONTENT WERE RAISED BY THE MINI-PARTIES THE ERSTWHILE CHAIRMAN OF THE CONSTITUTION COURT, JUSTICE TUMANOV HAD SAID THAT THE ISSUE OF THE POPULAR REPRESENTATION IN THE PARLIAMENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE STATE STRUCTURES WOULD REACT TO THE POLL OUTCOME AND WOULD THEY APPEAL TO THE APEX COURT.
BUT IT SEEMS, THE KREMLIN NOW FEELS THE TIME HAS COME TO CHANGE THE RULES .
ON JUNE 5 ONE OF THE LEADERS OF A HARDLY KNOWN "YOUTH SOLIDARITY' ORGANISATION , MR PAVEL PETOV HAS FILED A WRIT IN THE CONSTITUTION COURT CHALLENGING THE 5 PERCENT BARRIER.
KEEPING IN VIEW THE KREMLIN'S INTEREST IN DEALING WITH DUMA , THE CONSTITUTION COURT COULD GIVE ITS SPEEDY VERDICT DECLARING THE FILTRATION NORM 'UNCONSTITUTIONAL'.
SINCE, DUMA WILL NOT AMEND THE ELECTION LAW AND DECLARE ITS SELF-DISSOLUTION, MR YELTSIN COULD HIMSELF DISSOLVE IT ON THE BASIS OF THE APEX COURT RULING.
THIS "INNOVATIVE" SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE HIM THE OPPORTUNITY TO DEAL WITH THE COMMUNIST DOMINATED HOUSE AND ANNOUNCE FRESH ELECTIONS TO WATER DOWN THE STATE DUMA WITH SCORES OF MINI-PARTIES AND GROUPS TO DILUTE ITS RED COLOUR.
UNDER THE GIVEN SITUATION IN RUSSIA WHEN AS A RESULT OF PAINFUL REFORMS, AT TIMES A MOCKERY OF REFORMS, MILLIONS OF RUSSIANS ARE LIVING UNDER POVERTY LINE, THIS IS A RISKY GAME.
BUT MR YELTSIN IS KNOWN FOR TAKING RISKS TO ACHIEVE HIS GOAL.
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Johnson's Russia List
8 June 1997
djohnson@cdi.org
