Jamestown Foundation Monitor

9 June 1997

The Russian military could comply with President Boris Yeltsin's order to cut 200,000 men by the end of this year by doing nothing, since the actual strength of the armed forces falls short of the official figures by more than that number at the present time. This was confirmed by First Deputy Defense Minister Andrei Kokoshin in an interview following his June 3 meeting with Yeltsin to discuss military reform. Kokoshin argued, however, that the "mechanical approach" of simply eliminating the billets presently vacant would be neither an efficient nor a proper way to accomplish the downsizing.

Kokoshin promised there would be no "avalanche-like reduction in the officer corps," but he may not be able to prevent it. Former defense minister Igor Rodionov had said that 70,000 officers would be included in the 200,000-man cut while other ministry officials put the figure at 30,000 - 50,000. The actual exodus of commissioned officers may exceed the highest of these estimates. Military officials have repeatedly cautioned that an alarmingly high percentage of officers will leave the armed forces once their present contracts expire. In the latest such warning, an unidentified officer in the ministry said polls indicate that "most" officers are contemplating leaving the service -- an attitude prompted by "despair today and no hope for the future." They certainly would not stay in for the money. Officers' wages -- when they are paid -- lag far behind the pay for comparable civilian jobs. The official noted that military wages had not been indexed for inflation for over two years. (NTV, June 7; Interfax, June

8)

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Johnson's Russia List

9 June 1997

djohnson@cdi.org