Yeltsin Staff Weighs Duma Dissolution Option

Moskovskiye Novosti, No. 22

June 1-8, 1997

[translation for personal use only]

Article by Yevgeniy Krasnikov:

"Duma Once Again Threatened With Dissolution"

Last week for no apparent reason, several prominent politicians once again said that allegedly the State Duma was about to be dismissed. It seems that the warnings (rumors?) are not without basis. The Moskovskiye Novostiy [MN] editorial office has managed gain access to a note prepared by the presidential staff, analyzing the potential political scenario in the event the Duma is dissolved.

The note appeared not long before the passage of the government's "Seven Main Items of Business" program and is titled "On the Possible Development of the Situation in the State Duma in Connection With the Initiatives of the President and the Government." The compiler of the document is not indicated. However, there is reason to suppose that the experts in the presidential staff's Administration on Questions of Interaction With Political Parties, Public Associations, and Deputies of the Federal Assembly took part in preparing it.

The note examines three versions of the development of events (called Peaceful, Compromise, and Tough, respectively) after passage by the government of a new program and its presentation to the Duma deputies.

The Peaceful version is possible if the Duma at least passes at the first and second readings the draft laws prepared by the government on sequestering the budget, reducing exemptions, and on the Tax and Budget Codes. As a reward the Duma will retain its immunity, and the opposition will retain its representative in the government (Aman Tuleyev). Moreover, the deputies will finally receive their own TV broadcast and, possibly, a number of social benefits.

The Compromise version stipulates that the Duma postpones resolution of all acute problems until the fall. In that case the hope will remain that the deputies will think better of it and support the draft bills proposed by the government. In order to nudge them toward that decision, once again the question will be raised on the imperfection of the current election legislation, which does not take into consideration the will of all Russian citizens to the fullest extent.

And finally, the last tough scenario of the development of events is implemented in the event that the Duma categorically rejects all the government's proposals and enters into direct confrontation with the executive. If the deputies declare a vote of no confidence in the government twice in three months, the Duma will be dissolved. If the deputies do not provide the constitutional grounds for such a decision, the authors of the note suppose that the Constitutional Court can declare the Russian Federation Law On Elections of Russian Federation State Duma Deputies unconstitutional. After that, the dissolution of

the Duma and new elections are possible.

According to information from independent sources, it is assumed that the procedure for appealing to the Constitutional Court can be undertaken on the initiative of a group of citizens or a nonpolitical public organization. New elections, according to the Kremlin analysts, guarantee the Duma a more "progressive" makeup, since in many region voters have been disappointed with the "Red Governors" and no longer wish to vote for the opposition. It is assumed that in the four months that must elapse according to the Constitution from the dissolution of the old Duma until the new Duma begins work, the president will get the opportunity to confirm by edicts both Budget-98 and the Tax Code, as well as other important laws.

Of course a great number of notes are making the rounds in the Kremlin and the [Russian] "White House," containing forecasts of the development of political events, as they say, against any eventuality. However, the scenarios set forth in the above-mentioned document, it seems, have ceased being an "Official Use Only" item. It is hardly by chance that last week several announcements were voiced on the possible dissolution of the Duma in the near future. Vladimir Shumeyko spoke most definitely: "The Duma has no more than two weeks to live." Sergey Filatov also predicted a speedy dismissal of the Duma. (Does not the hasty creation of the "Union of Progressive Forces" under the Chernomyrdin-Shumeyko-Filatov aegis fit in with these predictions?)

CPRF [Communist Party of the Russian Federation] leaders Gennadiy Zyuganov and Valentin Kuptsov are also convinced that the Duma may be dissolved "as early as June." The government's "Seven Items of Business" program, Zyuganov said, "has two 'underground' points on destroying the Duma, and now several versions of that are being worked on."

As CPRF experts explained to MN's correspondent, the communists are convinced that these two "secret points" stipulate reform of the electoral law which would make possible simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections on the territory of Russia and Belarus. Given this, it is assumed election according to party lists is to be canceled "as not justifying itself," switching completely over to a majority system.

Curiously, recently leaders of the "Youth Solidarity" movement (an organizations formed on the basis of student councils, which, according to rumor, is actively sponsored by Anatoliy Chubays) announced at a press conference its intention to direct an inquiry to the Constitutional Court on whether the current Law on Election of Deputies to the State Duma is constitutional. And on Wednesday, 4 June (after this usse of MN comes out), the Association of Political Experts and Consultants of the Presidential Administration and of the Public Chamber of the President are conducting a round table on the theme: In Whose Hands Is the State Duma's Fate: a Scenario for Development. It is assumed that participants will discuss changes in the electoral legislation. So, it seems, the "tough" scenario has already begun being worked through.

It should be mentioned that the idea of appealing the unrepresentative character of the State Duma in Constitutional Court first emerged a month and a half before its election. The first to speak about the possibility of such a procedure was the then chairman of the Constitutional Court Vladimir Tumanov. Almost simultaneously a group was created for taking the initiative (Irina Khakamada, Vyacheslav Nikonov, Kakha Bendukidze and others), subsequently renamed the Right to Choice Citizens' Committee, which began actively implanting that idea into the public's consciousness. However, at that time, for a host of reasons, the project did not come about. And now it has once again come into demand. Why?

Obviously, the president for the remaining three years [of his term] is hurrying to do the things which he has not been able to persuade the Duma to approve throughout all the preceding years, using the method of "attack and pressure."

But is he ready to see this issue through to the end?

Most likely, the fate of the lower house will be determined by the deputies themselves. If the opposition finds a form of compromise acceptable to itself and to the government, having satisfied themselves with verbal imprecations addressed at the "occupation regime," the executive will hardly enter into open confrontation with it. But if the deputies do not limit themselves to threatening declarations, and reject all the government's proposals, than the political summer may be a "hot" one.

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Johnson's Russia List

10 June 1997

djohnson@cdi.org