Russian nuclear weapon risk seen great

By Clifford Coonan

August 11, 1997

FRANKFURT, Germany (Reuter) - The Cold War may be over but there is a danger that Russia's aging nuclear weapons could be fired by accident, a German study said Monday.

The study by Germany's Peace and Conflict Research Foundation said serious problems with early warning systems in Russia have led to the practice of keeping nuclear weapons in a permanent state of alert there.

This means they could be launched at the first signs of a real or imagined attack, according to the study, a copy of which was made available to Reuters.

``Nuclear weapons in emergency mode can be launched very quickly. This leads to the danger of unintentional launches through technical errors or false alarms,'' it said.

``Poor security standards could lead to an unauthorized start.''

Since the breakup of the former Soviet Union into 16 states, much of Russia's early warning network is no longer situated on Russian territory but in former Soviet republics.

Some satellites in early warning systems are too old to be used, while power cuts affect satellites and early warning stations in use.

Nuclear weapons in other countries are often kept in alert mode but the problem is particularly acute in Russia, it said.

``There is unsettling news here, which implies an acute danger for German and European security,'' said the Frankfurt-based foundation, which advocates nuclear disarmament.

Russia and the United States have cut the number of stationary strategic nuclear warheads by almost 50 percent since 1990.

Only two of Russia's nuclear submarines are still on patrol, while the rest of the fleet is in harbors. These and Russia's land-based nuclear warheads are in constant alert mode because being stationary they can easily be targeted.

The study proposed ``de-alerting'' as a possible solution.

This involves leaving many of a warhead's navigational systems and detonating systems unprimed, which delays the time it takes to get the warhead into launch mode.

``Countries with nuclear weapons will only be ready to radically cut back on their arsenals, or do away with them altogether, if secret nuclear weapons' programs can be identified securely and early enough,'' the study said.

``Creating a world free of nuclear weapons makes sense, because it is more secure than a world in which nuclear weapons exist,'' the study concluded.

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Johnson's Russia List

#1116

12 August 1997

djohnson@cdi.org