Moscow Times

November 11, 1999

DEFENSE DOSSIER: Liberals Complicit in War

By Pavel Felgenhauer

The war in Chechnya is six weeks old and it seems more and more a bloody stalemate. Of course, Russia's official and media propaganda are still speaking of victories. But the propaganda spin is getting thinner day by day.

The breakaway Chechen republic is a relatively small region: approximately 160 kilometers long and 100 kilometers wide. In six weeks the advancing Russian armored divisions have moved in no more than 30 kilometers through the sparsely populated steppes in the north of Chechnya, and have gained even less ground in other places.

They are advancing in Chechnya at a snail's pace - an advance more reminiscent of World War I than modern warfare. The tactics the Russian forces are using are equally reminiscent of the great battles of 1915-17 somewhere in Flanders: Heavy artillery pounds the same targets for days on end until everything is flattened before the infantry moves forward.

Since the beginning of the war, Russian TV channels have been constantly reporting that the army is not suffering any casualties, while hundreds of Chechen "terrorists" are being daily blown to pieces. The slow advance of Russian troops into Chechnya has been portrayed as a great success for the generals - one that is saving solders' lives.

However, even official (and probably understated) Defense Ministry casualty reports show a different picture: 142 dead and 365 wounded. During previous encounters with rebels in Dagestan in August and September, Russian forces suffered, according to official reports, more than 1,100 dead and wounded. For all those combined casualties, the military has no true victories to boast about: The main rebel force has not been defeated or even seriously encountered by the army. In any country with a genuinely free press such a casualty rate would have been considered appalling.

In fact, the war in Chechnya has already become a bloody quagmire. As the Russian army moves deeper into Chechnya, it becomes weaker. More and more men have to be left behind as occupation forces fight a futile hide-and-seek war with elusive Chechen guerrillas. The vicious North Caucasian winter has begun. Bad weather and bad food alone will take a growing toll among teenage conscript solders.

With winter also comes the discharge of conscripts who have served their two years. Today, as the Russian army is at the outskirts of Grozny, approximately a third of the more experienced sergeants and solders are being rotated out to be replaced by fresh recruits. The army may have reached the outskirts of Grozny, but its offensive momentum has largely fizzled out. However, the Russian and foreign media are mostly filled by stories that Russian generals are en masse demanding a war until theend and that even a military coup is possible if the Kremlin gives the Chechens a break.

Of course, these stories are total rubbish. It's like speculating that, say, the British army in Flanders in 1916 could have mutinied if someone called a ceasefire. There is, in fact, a small group of Russian generals lead by the chief of general staff, Anatoly Kvashnin. These generals hope that proclaiming victory in the Caucasus will lead to Kvashnin being promoted to defense minister and then most of his buddies in command in Chechnya will become three-star generals without delay. But the vast majority of Russian military officers did not like this war from the beginning and are even less enthusiastic today. It is, in fact, pro-Western Russian liberals and media moguls who are the main promoters of this war.

Today Russian troops are violating the 1949 Geneva Convention by attacking civilians in Chechnya. But the first to commit a verified war crime was the most known pro-Western liberal in Russia - Anatoly Chubais.

Six weeks ago Chubais, CEO of Russia's Unified Energy Systems, announced that he had ordered a full stop of electricity supplies to Chechnya. This move is an act of collective punishment, deliberately aimed at the civilian population and medical facilities in Chechnya.

Chubais's actions as the government-appointed CEO of UES is a deliberate violation of the Geneva Convention, especially during winter. At the same time, UES is exporting electricity to Europe. But not a murmur of criticism has come from the West, most likely because Chubais is a pro-Western "young reformer." Apparently the media spin about cruel generals coercing a reluctant "reformist" Kremlin into a vicious war in the Caucasus is considered a politically correct story in Russia and the West.

Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent Moscow-based defense analyst.