OLD - OBSERVATORY OF LAWS ON DRUGS

SURVEY OF THE AIDS PHENOMENON AND THE CRIME CONNECTED TO THE TRAFFIC AND CONSUMPTION OF PROHIBITED DRUGS.

(Made by Carla Rossi, OLD coordinator, on the basis of the official figures published by the National Institute of Statistics and by the AIDS Operational Centre of the Superior Health Institute).

CRIME - SURVEY ON ONE MONTH: JANUARY 1990

On the basis of the Istat data on crime, recorded by the police forces and concerning the month of January 1990, it can be gathered that:

- about 25.8% of all first-degree murders, corresponding to 34,

31 of which carried out by unknown persons, are connected to the Mafia, the Camorra or the 'Ndrangheta;

- if referred to murders with ascertained causes, the percentage surges to 50.7%;

- only 70% of first-degree murders for different causes is carried out by unknown persons, whereas the percentage becomes 91.2% for those connected to the above mentioned reasons;

- 29.4% of such murders is committed in chief towns, versus 36.7% for all other causes and 47.4% for ascertained causes.

Taking the thefts and robberies relative to the following ISTAT classifications as indicators of petty crime:

SIMPLE AND AGGRAVATED THEFT:

- pickpocketing;

- bag-snatching;

- in public offices;

- in shops;

- in apartments;

- in parked cars;

- on trains;

ROBBERY:

- robberies against couples or prostitutes;

- other robberies (in apartments, in shops, etc.);

The following can be said:

- the total number (for the month considered) of simple and aggravated thefts connected to petty crime is 84822, corresponding to 65.5% of all simple and aggravated thefts (65% in chief towns), 81385 of which committed by unknown persons, corresponding to 95.9%;

- the total number of robberies connected to petty crime is 3070, corresponding to 90% of all robberies (68.2% in chief towns), 2627 of which committed by unknown persons, corresponding to 85.6%;

- on the general total of crimes, 57.9% are committed in chief towns and 84.9% are committed by unknown persons, and 43% of all crimes can be connected to petty crime;

- the number of charges for the production and the peddling of drugs amounts to 2080 (59% in chief towns), only 7.8% of which committed by unknown persons.

CRIME - SURVEY OF A PERIOD OF FOUR MONTHS: JANUARY-APRIL 1990

As far as the same phenomenon is concerned, referred to the JANUARY-APRIL 1990 period, the total number of crimes amounts to 817666 (about four times as much as January), 83.6% of which committed by unknown persons and 58.6% of which committed in chief towns.

Murders for reasons that have to do with the mafia or similar criminal organizations amount to 147, 128 of which committed by unknown persons (87%) and 59 in chief towns (40%).

Compared to January the ratio is 4.32 of the total number, 4.12 of which committed by unknown person, 5.9 of those committed in chief towns. Compared to January the ratio of the total number of murders is 3.96, and 3.84 for murders for all other causes.

There seems to be a temporary trend toward an increase in murders for the above mentioned reasons compared to those committed for other causes. The percentage of such murders over the total number rises from 25.8% for January to 28.9% for the following three months.

Simple and aggravated thefts connected to petty crime amount to 334092, corresponding to 64.7% of all simple and aggravated thefts (65.6% in chief towns), 319056 of which committed by unknown persons (95.5%). Compared to January the ratio is: 3.94 of the total, 3.92 of those committed by unknown persons, 3.99 of those committed in chief towns.

Robberies connected to petty crime amount to 11084, corresponding to 89.2% of all robberies (68.6% in chief towns), 9437 of which committed by unknown persons (85%). Compared to the month of January the ratio is 3.6 of the total number, 3.59 of those committed by unknown persons, 3.63 for those relative to chief towns.

Of the total number of crimes. 58.6% is committed in chief towns, 83.6% is committed by unknown persons, 42.2% is connected to petty crime. Crimes for reasons connected with the mafia and other criminal organizations represent 0.2% of the total number, versus 0.17% for January.

9399 charges were filed for the production and the peddling of drugs (58.8% in chief towns), 662 of which from unknown persons (appr.7%). Compared to the month of January the ratio is 4.52% for the total number, 4.49 for chief towns, 4.06% for those committed by unknown persons.

CRIME - SURVEY ON ONE YEAR: 1989

For year 1989 we used the figures relative to the data on crime, according to a less specific classification than the previous one, divided by province and region, on the basis of the information divulged by the Magistracy.

While we still lack similar figures for 1990, we can at any rate make a first territorial survey, even if less accurate compared to the type of crime.

Table 1 [THE TABLES WILL BE INSERTED SUBSEQUENTLY, EDITOR'S NOTE] contains the data relative to the total number of first-degree murders (OMVOL), thefts (FURTO) and denounced crimes, divided by region and referred to the whole of 1989, with the percentage of crimes committed by unknown persons (IGNOTO) as well as the incidence of first-degree murders (OMVOLINC), thefts (FURTOINC) and total crimes (DELINC) per 1000 inhabitants. If we examine the columns relative to the data on the incidence, we can notice a considerable variety of (criminal) behaviours on a regional basis. Especially as far as first-degree murder is concerned, the national average (0.0499) represents a sort of a border between regions particularly affected by organized crime, such as Calabria, Sicily, Apulia, Sardinia and Campania, in which approximately 66% of all crimes are committed, and the rest of the country.

As far as theft is concerned, the situation is reversed: apart from Apulia, regions such as Latium, Trentino Alto Adige, Lombardy, Piedmont and Val D'Aosta, with 58% of the total number of denounced thefts, are above the national average, whereas the Southern regions are generally below it.

It must be considered that the figures take into account only denounced thefts, and that many small thefts are presumably not denounced, especially in regions in which little trust is placed in the State.

AIDS - SURVEY OF THE CORRELATIONS WITH CRIMINAL PHENOMENA

We shall now consider the situation relative to the AIDS epidemic, on a regional basis, using the data published bt the AIDS Operational Centre of the Supreme Health Institute, updated to 30/9/90, a detailed account of which can be found on CORA NEWS N.1, and which are quoted on Report N.0 of CORA OLD, distributed on the occasion of the Assembly of 1/12/90.

We will simply analyse the regional incidence of AIDS cases per thousand inhabitants, and of AIDS cases among drug addicts, in order to investigate the existence of any statistic connections with the crime indicators previously surveyed.

Table N.2 contains the data relative to the total number of AIDS cases notified in Italy since the beginning of the epidemic until 30/9/90, divided on a regional basis (AIDSTOT), those relative to drug addicts (AIDSTD), the proportion of the latter compared to the former (PROPAIDS) and the incidence of the former (AIDSINC) and of the latter (AIDSTDIN) on one thousand inhabitants.

In this case as well, if we examine the columns relative to the incidences, we can gather some important information. If we consider the national average of the AIDS incidences (0.134), we can notice that only 5 regions have higher incidences: Lombardy, Liguria, Latium, Emilia-Romagna and Sardinia, in which 65% of cases are concentrated. Likewise, as far as the cases among drug-addicts are concerned, only these same 5 regions have higher incidences than the national average. 67% of all cases are concentrated in such regions.

Moreover, such regions have consistent proportions of cases connected to drug addiction compared to the total, despite the fact that the distribution of this last quantity points less than other to a more homogeneous situation among the different regions. The data range from a minimum of 0.5% in Molise to a maximum of 0.82 in Sardinia, with several values that are very close to the national average.

In order to facilitate the comparative survey of the two phenomena, crime and AIDS, which are considered connected to a common cause (drug addiction), we can refer to table 3, which contains the regional incidences. The trend is not very evident, but there is a common regional trend between the second and the fifth column (picture 1).

In any case, the correlation coefficient between the two columns is not very high (appr. 0.5). If we now consider the charts of the regions compared to the two phenomena in order of size, we have table 4, which shows a greater similarity between the charts relative to the second and fifth column (the correlation coefficient between the ranks becomes 0.61%). However, we should remember that the theft indicator also contains crimes that are not strictly connected to petty crime, which is typical of drug addiction, because the regional data for 1989 make no distinction between the different types of theft, as for the national data for 1990; we will have to wait for the publication of the survey on a regional and provincial basis using the data for 1990 to make a more accurate comparison with the data relative to the AIDS epidemic. Furthermore, we are considering only the thefts that have been denounced and for which the Magistracy has instituted the relative proceeding, with all the distortions which this impli

es.

As a conclusive remark, we can say there is concentration of the major organizations that control the drug traffic (OMVOLINC) in the South, with relative wars to obtain the supremacy, and a North-bound exportation of the substances, with a greater diffusion of drug addiction as a consequence (FURTOINC, AIDSTDIN), which can be gathered by the figures on petty crime and the diffusion of the AIDS epidemic.