EUROPEAN Union ministers will tomorrow force through tough fish catch reduction targets which are likely to have a devastating: impact on the Scottish fleet.
Cuts of up to a third in the amount of fish currently taken from the Nonh Sea - including household favourites such as cod, plaice. sole and haddock are envisaged as pan of a deal to preserve seriously depleted stocks.
Britain is expected to face bigger targets than other EU countries because of its past poor perfomance in implementing reductions.
Fisheries ministers will agree to the targets despite a rearguard action by the British government. It says it will not agree to the reductions until the EU sorts out the contentious issue of 'quota hopping' by non-British owned vessels and has threatened to distrupt business at the Amsterdam summit of EU leaders in June. when the Maastricht Treat) is due to be revised.
In advance of 'the meeting in Luxembourg, Brussels fisheries commissioner Emma Bonino told Scotland on Sunday: "The UK is in a special situation because, unlike other member states it has made no effort to reduce capacity in the last 10 years."
Confirming Scots fishermen will be hit hardest, she added: 'Their lives will be quite tough h, the next few years. I hope the new government puts fisheries as a priority in their budget. The transition will be more tough for Scotland."
Bonino said the Tories had neglected fisheries policy and had done little to utilise the funds coming from the EU.
Under previous fish reduction targets, money was on the table to de-commission boats but with Westminster not prepared to match the L. I 2m needed to float the scheme, owners sold their crafts and Iicences to others including foreign skippers -who fish the UK's allocation but land it abroad.
Federation, whose representatives are in Luxembourg campaigning against the catch reduction targets, said getting their arguments across was an uphill battle. lf these reductions go through, we will be very angry," said spokesman Rob Allan. ''AII of Scotland's key stocks fall under one category or another."
The proposed deal to be discussed tomorrow' and due to be implemented within the next 18 months concentrates on two main categories; fish seriously depleted (30% cut envisaged) and overfished stocks (2()".,). These are mainly North Sea herring, mackerel, cod, plaice, sole and haddock as well as west of Scotland cod and mackerel.
Although there will be a battle to keep cuts to a minimum, other members states want a deal now because Brussels is holdingback fisheries funding pending a decision due to have been made last December.
It is thought Britain may threaten the EU with an all-out 'fish war' if the related issue of quota-hopping issue is not resolved at the same time as any deal over fish stocks. .
If some compromise was reached over quota-hoppin, which sees more than a quarter of the British' fleet made up of foreign boats - mainly from Spain and Denmark - which have bought UK fishing permits, it could cancel out the effects of big catch reduction target and leave the Scottish industry intact.
UK fisheries minister Tony Baldry said: If you have 26% of your fleet as quota hoppers that gives you considerable leeway." Such measures will be fiercely resisted however by Spanish owners who purchased quotas from willing British trawler companies.
The threat of a 'fish war' could, however, be a smokescreen; to draw attention away from this week's catch reduction deal. " lt's politically sensitive in the time of an election," admitted one UK official. "We can't predict how our minister will vote but it is likely that an agreement will be reached."
Any last-ditch electioneering will not stop Europe from pushing through some son of deal. Other EU states believe the Tories' days are numbered and that a future Labour government would not re-enter the EU arena after 18 years and block business from day one.
Last week, officials from several EU countries made it clear they were ready to agree to cuts. One Duch official commented: '' There has been a complete mood change. Everyone seeme willing to sign-up to a text."
Scottish fishermen pressed the Tory government to deal with the issue of quota hopping as far back as 1992 when the UK held the EU's presidency.
By Nick Mackie in Brussels