A GERMAN GIANT WHOSE SIGHTS ARE SET ON A FEDERAL EUROPE

by Victor Smart

(The European, 14-20 October 1994)

HELMUT Kohl is in an enviable position. Undisputed as the western world's most respected elder statesman, to many he is simply "Mr Europe". The German Chancellor enjoys a role as Europe's chief fixer, paymaster and visionary. Increasingly, US President Bill Clinton tends to assume that when Kohl speaks, he speaks for Europe.

Among the world's mightiest leaders, none of Kohl's democratically elected rivals can match his approval rating with his own people. If he does secure a new democratic mandate, it will be a powerful springboard for his European ambitions.

Alain Dauvergne, European editor of Le Point, a magazine in Paris, spells out the broader significance of a Kohl triumph: "It will mean a new era for Europe - an era when German leadership will become fully apparent. Of course, Kohl will not say that overtly but that will be the reality."

Some view Kohl's electoral buoyancy as a tribute to the moderation spawned by the federal republic's consensus-style politics at a time when the far right is making inroads in neighbouring Austria. But those who fear an over-dominant Germany will find the new realities of German hegemony disquieting.

Self-evidently, what makes Kohl so formidable is the unique combination of his personal strengths with his country's. The reason why unified Germany is supreme in Europe are manifold: its pivotal geographical position since the fall of the Iron Curtain, its economic muscle and its huge population, plus its status as a founding member of the EU. For good measure, the German powerhouse economy is putting the recession behind it.

Kohl, for his part, is pivotal owing to his years of experience, his personal relations with other EU leaders and the fact that once this election is in the bag, he can afford to look beyond the opinion polls for the rest of his career.

In Europe's other capitals, attitudes towards Kohl transcend party lines. John Major, the British prime minister, and the Italian premier, Silvio Berlusconi, both right-wingers flirting with Euro-seepticism, might be excused for praying for Kohl's opponent, Rudolph Scharping, to seize victory. Faced by demands within his party to consider withdrawal from the EU, Major, in particular, has no reason to welcome the return of someone likely to give fresh impetus to federalism.

The greatest impact of the Bundestag election will undoubtedly be on the Franco-German axis which underpins the drive towards ever closer union. On the face of it, Kohl's continued presence would lend continuity to the relationship between Bonn and Paris. But the reality is more brutal.

Further boosting the already dominant German partner could bring the chronic imbalance in the relationship into a state of crisis. With Kohl unfettered by electoral considerations, how long could the masquerade continue that France and Germany are equal partners?

France is already uneasy over the decision to coordinate its EU presidency, starting on 1 January, with the current German term, which culminates in the Essen summit on 9 December. This joint strategy has forced Paris into swallowing Germany's hasty timetable to admit central and eastern European states. Paris fears that otherwise Bonn will simply go ahead on its own.

Dauvergne comments: "Kohl's re-election will make the position of the French president very difficult. How does Paris keep Kohl in cheek while maintaining the Franco-German axis? The situation is aggravated by the struggle to keep Europe off the agenda in the run-up to next year's presidential election."

A newly triumphant Kohl would be a gnawing anxiety for the French Prime Minister, Edouard Balladur, in his pursuit of the presidency. "He's a frosty, arrogant Frenchman who has no rapport with genial Kohl who has the common touch. Furthermore, Balladur's views on Europe, if he has any, are unclear," says Dauvergne.

By contrast, Commission President Jacques Delors, the Left's likeliest candidate in next year's race for the Elysée, enjoys warm relations with Kohl, sharing his unshakeable belief in the federal destiny of the Union.

Germany's new role will be most immediately evident in the drive for further Maastricht-style integration. Once the election is out of the way, Kohl will be at liberty to pursue that goal wholeheartedly in the hectic remaining months of Germany's EU Presidency without fear of frightening his voters at home. For, ironically, Germans look set to reconfirm him as Chancellor despite, rather than because of his fervent vision for Europe.

The Chancellor has worn his European views as prominently as a star on the bonnet of a Mercedes, yet among the ordinary people enthusiasm for European union has waned markedly.

If Kohl is returned to power, expect a German dash to fulfil an ambitious agenda in the run-up to the Essen summit. Crudely, this will comprise a fresh dose of federalism and a new momentum for hurried admission into the EU of the former Soviet satellites.

Yet what if the unproven Scharping does confound the pundits and wins in Sunday's elections? Certainly, there will be differences. The social democrat is seen as less pushy than Kohl, and less interested in Germany asserting itself as a world player with military involvement outside the Nato area. Above all, Scharping would have to thoroughly establish himself on the domestic scene before switching his attention to Europe. He might lack the skills or the stomach for a bruising confrontation with his EU partners.

But few would lay money on it. Ironically, Kohl's vision of a united states of Europe could proceed undimmed. For in talks with the foreign ministry in Bonn, senior SPD figures have signed up to the CDU's blueprint for the EU, and they have committed themselves to the crammed agenda for Essen.

There is a certain symmetry in this. At times Kohl has appeared to put keeping European integration on track above winning the election for himself and his party. Whoever triumphs, then, the diplomacy will remain firmly Euro-federalist: Bonn's chosen solution to the old conundrum that it is excellent to have a giant's strength, but it is tyrannous to use it like a giant.

Victor SMART