SWEDEN VOTES TO JOIN THE EU.

by Andrew Marshall

(The Independent, 14-11-1994)

Sweden yesterday voted narrowly for membership of the European Union, according to early official results.

The result, if confirmed, marks a remarkable turnaround in public opinion. It may sway the decision in Norway, taking the European Union to 16 from 12. But it boosts the number of EU doubters, with a substantial amount of the population remaining unconvinced.

With most of the votes counted, 52 per cent had voted "Yes", 47 per cent "no", and 1 per cent left their voting slips blank.

This seemed to show a lastminute shift in favour of membership, after a week when opinion polls had showed voters veering between yes and no. The last polls showed the yes vote narrowly in the lead, but the 20 per cent of the population that had been undecided may have plumped for membership at the last moment.

Carl Bildt, former prime minister and the man who masterminded Sweden's negotiations, said he was delighted. "It seems as if we succeeded, and people in Sweden decided that membership is better than non-membership," he said. The last stretch of the campaign concentrated on the potential costs of staying outside the EU, with the Social Democrat government warning that a no might lead to a collapse in the currency and rising interest rates, and that a further austerity package might be necessary.

But the Social Democrat party - by far Sweden's largest - remained deeply split on the issue. Speaking for the Social Democrats who opposed membership, Anders Ygerman said that "people were on our side, but the money was somewhere else". He warned that the party was still unconvinced, and said that it would not be easy to heal the rift. "We're a divided nation," he said.

Sweden will be an uneasy partner for other European countries, and may prove an ally for those sceptical of deeper integration, like Britain and Denmark. A neutral state, Sweden is not a member of Nato or the Western European Union. Its membership will boost the number of EU neutrals to three (including Ireland and Finland), reinforcing the trend towards a multi-track Europe advocated by John Major.

A no vote would have been seized on by British Euro-sceptics as proof that membership was not the only option.

Sweden will be alongside Britain when it comes to EU decisions on free trade and budgetary discipline, as a contributor to European funds. However, with its insistence on high environmental, social and welfare standards, as well as its resistance to secrecy and closed-door decision-making, it will also find itself on the opposite side of the debate from Britain in many important policy areas. With Social Democrat governments in power in Denmark and Sweden, and likely in Finland, the EU is set to take a turn towards the left over the next year.

The Swedish vote may influence Norway, which is the most Euro-sceptic of the Nordic nations and has already rejected membership once. It votes on the EU on 28 November.

Hans van den Broek, the EU commissioner for foreign policy, welcomed the vote last night. But some officials in the Commission have deep misgivings about allowing in new members with such doubts about the path of integration. Once the Nordic question has been solved, the EU will have to turn to the question of membership for the central European countries who are already banging on the door.

Andrew MARSHALL