EU STILL AMBIVALENT ON ENLARGEMENT

from Andrew Marshall

(The Independent, 29 November 1994)

When European Union heads of government meet next week, they will agree a plan intended to smooth the path of the central Europeans to membership. Yet with only a week to go before the summit in Essen, Germany has yet to decide whether central European leaders will be invited to see what is being done.

There is no question that the EU will decide on a date for new membership, or on which countries should come in. The contradiction between the EU's ability to make progress on detail, and its uncertainty over political strategy, is replicated at Nato, where the alliance is still undecided on how far it can go to let the central European know what is required for membership.

Yesterday EU foreign ministers agreed a package of measures, called a pre-accession strategy, that should ease the way for its prospective members. It will examine virtually every area of linkage between the central Europeans states and the West, including trade, aid, communications and transport and more scheduled meetings. it represents "progress of a sort", said one official yesterday, as the issue is highly controversial.

But even the cautious strategy lacks crucial details, such as financing and how to reform the Common Agricultural Policy. Money has only been proposed for next year. And Cap reform has been slid off the agenda, by proposing a "study", usually the response of the EU when faced by a difficult question. EU's southern countries, including France, are reluctant to see further enlargement even talked about because they fear it will shift the EU's centre of gravity, absorb cash, and undermine the advantages of the poorer, Mediterranean states. They also want to make sure that letting in members will not remove the benefits of membership for those there.

Germany has tried to push relations with the east during its presidency during the last six months, but has achieved relatively little. Even now it is uncertain whether the central Europeans will get to the Essen summit. France will chair the EU during the first six months of next year. If the central Europeans are not invited to Essen, they will almost certainly be invited to the EU summit at Cannes in June.

Nato is undergoing the same painful process of resolving its internal problems, the desires of the central Europeans and the demands of existing members. The topic will be on the agenda when Nato foreign ministers meet on Thursday to consider what amounts to a "pre-accession strategy". The US and Germany are pushing for expansion, but France is opposed.

Indeed, the key player in the debate in both the EU and Nato will be France, underlined by the fact that Willy Claes, the Nato secretary-general, went to visit the French Foreign Minister yesterday in an EU building. It is also France that has expressed the most concerns about letting guests come to Essen. A presidential election in France in 1995 means the issue is tricky. Mr Claes has also scheduled a meeting with Jacques Delors, President of the European Commission and possibly the next president of France, to talk about enlargement.

Andrew Marshall