Direttamente dal sito della Banca Mondiale si mando, per tua scienza personale, un piccolo stralcio di un paper della Banca Mondiale intitolato "l'impatto sociale della crisi".

Buona lettura.

The collapse of the exchange rate from 2,500 to levels as low as 15,000 has contributed to one of the

largest real depreciations in the post-world war two era;

the turnaround in growth of 22 percentage points (from positive 7.8 percent in 1996/97 to possibly

negative 10-15 percent for 1998/99) dwarfs anything experienced in the OECD countries since the Great

Depression;

the $22 billion reversal of private capital flows from inflows of $10 billion in 1996/97 to outflows of $12

billion in 1997/98 is nearly as large as the total net private capital flows in the entire decade to 1985-95;

this financial and economic crisis has been accompanied by natural disasters. The drought occasioned by El

Niño reduced rice harvests and agricultural production generally and severe localized droughts contributed

to uncontrollable forest fires;

the price of Indonesia's key export, oil, has fallen to $13 a barrel, its lowest level in real terms in 30 years;

enormous political changes are taking place.

This historic combination of events is creating severe economic and social dislocation for many Indonesians.

While Indonesia is justly proud of its rapid poverty reduction since the 1970s, the present crisis will see large scale

reversals of that progress. Table 1 shows just one possible estimate of the increase in poverty due to the crises.

Using the standard poverty line, the simulations forecast that the proportion of Indonesians living in poverty will

increases from 10 to 17 percent, thrusting an additional 15 million people into dire poverty.

However, any particular absolute poverty line is potentially misleading, as many people who may not be

"extremely poor" are just as likely to be hurt by the crises. This is especially true in Indonesia, as one consequence

of having a relatively equally distribution of incomes is that there is a large clustering of people near the poverty

line.

For instance, if the expenditure level that defines poverty is just 25 percent higher then the estimate of people

currently in poverty doubles, to 45 million, and the additional number estimated to fall into poverty due to the

crises increases to 25 million, with 71 million in poverty.